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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.64+10.32vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+5.69vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.74+3.70vs Predicted
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4Harvard University4.36+3.95vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.06+4.26vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University4.71+0.58vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin4.10+2.23vs Predicted
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8Yale University4.19+0.69vs Predicted
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9Boston College4.43-1.36vs Predicted
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10University of Miami3.99-0.05vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.56+0.60vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University4.01-2.02vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida3.49-1.41vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.83-3.95vs Predicted
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15Tufts University4.08-5.84vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.69-4.96vs Predicted
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17Stanford University3.90-6.84vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College3.28-5.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.32College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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7.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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6.7Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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7.95Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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9.26Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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6.58Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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9.23University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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8.69Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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7.64Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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9.95University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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11.6Boston University3.560.0%1st Place
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9.98Old Dominion University4.010.0%1st Place
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11.59University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Naval Academy3.830.0%1st Place
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9.16Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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11.04Brown University3.690.0%1st Place
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10.16Stanford University3.900.0%1st Place
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12.4SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Mace | 3.6% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Chris Barnard | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Brendan Kopp | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Sam Williams | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% |
| Alec Anderson | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Joseph Morris | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| Anne Haeger | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Nicholas Voss | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| Ryan Pesch | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% |
| Will Stocke | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 13.5% |
| Alex Ramos | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% |
| William Haeger | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| Judge Ryan | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| Mateo Vargas | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.1% |
| Randall Hartranft | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 17.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.