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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Williams College-1.12+9.71vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University0.46+1.80vs Predicted
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3Boston University0.25+3.34vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.80-0.60vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.24-1.00vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College0.60-0.20vs Predicted
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7Bates College-1.55+4.68vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.38+0.40vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont-0.74+0.59vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20+1.52vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.37-2.58vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University-0.79-2.17vs Predicted
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13Fairfield University-0.43-4.67vs Predicted
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14Amherst College-0.35-5.68vs Predicted
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15McGill University-0.89-5.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.71Williams College-1.121.7%1st Place
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3.8Salve Regina University0.4619.8%1st Place
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6.34Boston University0.257.0%1st Place
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3.4University of Rhode Island1.8022.4%1st Place
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4.0Roger Williams University1.2417.5%1st Place
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5.8Connecticut College0.608.6%1st Place
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11.68Bates College-1.551.6%1st Place
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8.4University of New Hampshire-0.383.8%1st Place
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9.59University of Vermont-0.742.2%1st Place
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11.52University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.200.8%1st Place
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8.42University of New Hampshire-0.373.7%1st Place
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9.83Salve Regina University-0.792.0%1st Place
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8.33Fairfield University-0.433.7%1st Place
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8.32Amherst College-0.353.3%1st Place
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9.86McGill University-0.892.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rem Johannknecht | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 15.2% |
| Emil Tullberg | 19.8% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Kalich | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Declan Botwinick | 22.4% | 20.0% | 17.8% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 17.5% | 16.8% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Gray Dinsel | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 28.5% |
| Sean Lund | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| Will Kelleher | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% |
| Cole Perra | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 17.6% | 22.6% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
| Sean Morrison | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 7.0% |
| Jane Matthews | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Nat Edmonds | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.