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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University0.46+2.93vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.80+1.57vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.01+1.34vs Predicted
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4Amherst College-0.35+4.44vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.24-0.90vs Predicted
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6Bates College-1.55+5.84vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.60-1.06vs Predicted
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8Fairfield University-0.43+0.62vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-0.38-0.39vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.37-1.41vs Predicted
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11Williams College-1.12-0.05vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University-0.79-2.13vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20-1.44vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont-0.74-4.40vs Predicted
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15McGill University-0.89-4.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.93Salve Regina University0.4619.0%1st Place
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3.57University of Rhode Island1.8020.8%1st Place
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4.34Boston University1.0114.4%1st Place
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8.44Amherst College-0.353.1%1st Place
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4.1Roger Williams University1.2416.1%1st Place
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11.84Bates College-1.551.1%1st Place
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5.94Connecticut College0.607.8%1st Place
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8.62Fairfield University-0.433.1%1st Place
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8.61University of New Hampshire-0.383.1%1st Place
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8.59University of New Hampshire-0.373.1%1st Place
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10.95Williams College-1.121.2%1st Place
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9.87Salve Regina University-0.791.8%1st Place
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11.56University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.201.1%1st Place
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9.6University of Vermont-0.742.2%1st Place
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10.05McGill University-0.891.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Tullberg | 19.0% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 20.8% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 14.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Selian | 14.4% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nat Edmonds | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| William Bailey | 16.1% | 15.3% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gray Dinsel | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 16.2% | 27.8% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jane Matthews | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Sean Lund | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 16.2% |
| Sean Morrison | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.6% |
| Cole Perra | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 17.5% | 23.0% |
| Will Kelleher | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 5.8% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.