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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University0.46+2.94vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.01+2.48vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.24+1.19vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.80-0.43vs Predicted
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5Amherst College-0.35+3.46vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont-0.74+3.62vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.60-0.95vs Predicted
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8Fairfield University-0.43+0.77vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20+2.44vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.38-1.49vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.37-2.43vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University-0.79-2.24vs Predicted
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13Williams College-1.12-2.15vs Predicted
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14Bates College-1.55-2.22vs Predicted
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15McGill University-0.89-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.94Salve Regina University0.4617.3%1st Place
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4.48Boston University1.0114.2%1st Place
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4.19Roger Williams University1.2416.4%1st Place
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3.57University of Rhode Island1.8021.9%1st Place
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8.46Amherst College-0.353.5%1st Place
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9.62University of Vermont-0.742.1%1st Place
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6.05Connecticut College0.607.5%1st Place
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8.77Fairfield University-0.433.0%1st Place
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11.44University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.201.2%1st Place
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8.51University of New Hampshire-0.383.0%1st Place
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8.57University of New Hampshire-0.373.2%1st Place
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9.76Salve Regina University-0.792.5%1st Place
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10.85Williams College-1.121.2%1st Place
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11.78Bates College-1.551.1%1st Place
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10.03McGill University-0.891.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Tullberg | 17.3% | 16.1% | 16.8% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Selian | 14.2% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 16.4% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 21.9% | 19.5% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nat Edmonds | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Will Kelleher | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 6.2% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jane Matthews | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% |
| Cole Perra | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 22.7% |
| Sean Lund | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| Sean Morrison | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 7.2% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 14.5% |
| Gray Dinsel | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 15.9% | 28.7% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.