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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.24+3.07vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.80+1.62vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.01+1.45vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.60+1.86vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont-0.74+4.60vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-0.37+2.52vs Predicted
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7Amherst College-0.35+1.60vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.38+0.71vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20+2.56vs Predicted
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10Bates College-1.55+1.78vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University-0.43-2.23vs Predicted
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12McGill University-0.89-1.87vs Predicted
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13Williams College-1.12-2.32vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University0.46-10.12vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University-0.79-5.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.07Roger Williams University1.2417.6%1st Place
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3.62University of Rhode Island1.8020.8%1st Place
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4.45Boston University1.0113.4%1st Place
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5.86Connecticut College0.608.3%1st Place
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9.6University of Vermont-0.742.1%1st Place
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8.52University of New Hampshire-0.373.5%1st Place
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8.6Amherst College-0.353.0%1st Place
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8.71University of New Hampshire-0.382.9%1st Place
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11.56University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.201.2%1st Place
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11.78Bates College-1.550.7%1st Place
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8.77Fairfield University-0.433.2%1st Place
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10.13McGill University-0.891.9%1st Place
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10.68Williams College-1.121.3%1st Place
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3.88Salve Regina University0.4617.8%1st Place
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9.79Salve Regina University-0.792.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Bailey | 17.6% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 20.8% | 17.6% | 16.3% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Selian | 13.4% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Will Kelleher | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 5.9% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Nat Edmonds | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% |
| Sean Lund | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Cole Perra | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 16.9% | 24.6% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 15.9% | 27.8% |
| Jane Matthews | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.2% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| Emil Tullberg | 17.8% | 17.0% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Morrison | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.