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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.88vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+0.81vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.09+7.50vs Predicted
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4University of Buffalo2.44+0.53vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.07+3.23vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.99+1.51vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.13-0.26vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.21-1.25vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University1.40-2.66vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.48-6.52vs Predicted
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12Colgate University0.89-3.30vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College1.73-6.67vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.99-5.49vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy0.00-4.32vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-2.08-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.88Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.2%1st Place
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2.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.3%1st Place
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10.5Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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4.53University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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8.23Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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8.51University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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7.74Webb Institute1.130.0%1st Place
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7.75Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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7.34Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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4.48Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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8.7Colgate University0.890.0%1st Place
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6.33Ocean County College1.730.1%1st Place
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8.51University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Military Academy0.000.0%1st Place
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13.51Penn State University-2.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 16.9% | 18.5% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 29.7% | 23.3% | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Gross | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 11.8% | 18.0% | 29.2% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 11.1% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| James Codega | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 12.5% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Gordon | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Pinnell | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 20.0% | 28.1% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Nelson | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 7.7% | 83.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.