← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Buffalo2.44+3.50vs Predicted
-
2Webb Institute1.13+5.80vs Predicted
-
3Syracuse University1.40+4.26vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University2.48+0.49vs Predicted
-
5Ocean County College1.73+1.44vs Predicted
-
6Villanova University1.21+1.89vs Predicted
-
7Colgate University0.89+1.39vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University1.07+0.07vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-6.01vs Predicted
-
10University of Rochester0.99-1.57vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Military Academy0.00-0.18vs Predicted
-
13Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-9.10vs Predicted
-
14University of Rochester0.99-5.57vs Predicted
-
15Princeton University0.09-4.48vs Predicted
-
16Penn State University-2.08-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.5University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
-
7.8Webb Institute1.130.0%1st Place
-
7.26Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
-
4.49Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
-
6.44Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
-
7.89Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
-
8.39Colgate University0.890.0%1st Place
-
8.07Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
-
2.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.3%1st Place
-
8.43University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
-
10.82U. S. Military Academy0.000.0%1st Place
-
3.9Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.2%1st Place
-
8.43University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
-
10.52Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
-
13.51Penn State University-2.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 13.5% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Codega | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 12.4% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Gordon | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 27.1% | 23.0% | 15.9% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Pinnell | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 17.7% | 30.2% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 17.7% | 16.6% | 16.3% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Gross | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 19.2% | 27.3% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Nelson | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 7.4% | 83.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.