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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.75vs Predicted
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2University of Buffalo2.44+2.31vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+0.24vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University1.40+3.26vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.07+3.26vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.74+0.40vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.13+0.75vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester0.99+0.35vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.21-1.17vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College1.73-3.59vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.99-2.65vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.09-2.27vs Predicted
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14Colgate University1.69-7.54vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.08-1.53vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy0.00-5.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.2%1st Place
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4.31University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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3.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.2%1st Place
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7.26Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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8.26Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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6.4Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
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7.75Webb Institute1.130.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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7.83Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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6.41Ocean County College1.730.1%1st Place
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8.35University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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10.73Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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6.46Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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13.47Penn State University-2.080.0%1st Place
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10.77U. S. Military Academy0.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 19.4% | 18.8% | 16.7% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 15.0% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 24.5% | 20.9% | 18.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Codega | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Gross | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 20.4% | 29.5% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Nelson | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 82.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Pinnell | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 18.9% | 30.1% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.