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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+2.25vs Predicted
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2Syracuse University1.40+5.05vs Predicted
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3University of Buffalo2.44+1.39vs Predicted
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4Ocean County College1.73+2.29vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.13+2.12vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-3.15vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester0.99+0.16vs Predicted
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9Colgate University1.69-2.56vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.74-3.65vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.99-2.84vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.07-3.69vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy0.00-2.09vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.09-3.27vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.08-1.53vs Predicted
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16Villanova University1.21-8.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.3%1st Place
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7.05Syracuse University1.400.1%1st Place
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4.39University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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6.29Ocean County College1.730.1%1st Place
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8.12Webb Institute1.130.0%1st Place
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3.85Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.2%1st Place
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8.16University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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6.44Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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6.35Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
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8.16University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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8.31Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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10.91U. S. Military Academy0.000.0%1st Place
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10.73Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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13.47Penn State University-2.080.0%1st Place
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7.68Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan O'Leary | 25.4% | 21.9% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 14.4% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Codega | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 18.3% | 17.4% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Pinnell | 0.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 17.6% | 33.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 21.1% | 27.3% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Nelson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 9.1% | 81.8% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.