← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+4.86vs Predicted
-
2Yale University3.74+5.05vs Predicted
-
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90+3.53vs Predicted
-
4University of Vermont3.63+3.56vs Predicted
-
5Roger Williams University3.35+3.48vs Predicted
-
6Brown University3.98+0.40vs Predicted
-
7Dartmouth College4.05-1.03vs Predicted
-
8Tufts University3.480.00vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College2.96+1.34vs Predicted
-
10Boston University3.03-0.29vs Predicted
-
11Washington College3.07-1.16vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College3.06-2.25vs Predicted
-
13Harvard University3.16-3.48vs Predicted
-
14Bowdoin College2.90-3.45vs Predicted
-
15University of Connecticut1.72-0.83vs Predicted
-
16Wesleyan University2.71-4.77vs Predicted
-
17Salve Regina University2.45-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.86St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
-
7.05Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
-
6.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
-
7.56University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
-
8.48Roger Williams University3.350.1%1st Place
-
6.4Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
-
5.97Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
-
8.0Tufts University3.480.1%1st Place
-
10.34Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
-
9.71Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
-
9.84Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
-
9.75SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
-
9.52Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
-
10.55Bowdoin College2.900.0%1st Place
-
14.17University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
-
11.23Wesleyan University2.710.0%1st Place
-
12.03Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marlena Fauer | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Sommer | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Max Lopez | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Colin Smith | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Natalie Salk | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 5.0% |
| Ian Towill | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.2% |
| Tyler Steel | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% |
| Gram Slattery | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Peter Edmunds | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 6.7% |
| Thomas Presti | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 43.4% |
| John McGlynn | 2.7% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 9.1% |
| John Silvestri | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 15.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.