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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+4.86vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.35+6.54vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.03+6.82vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.63+3.57vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.05+0.87vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.07+3.93vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.48+1.11vs Predicted
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8University of Connecticut1.72+5.95vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University2.45+3.28vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.74-2.97vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.90-0.47vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.96-1.85vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.98-6.70vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-7.34vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College3.06-5.25vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University2.71-4.84vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.16-7.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.86St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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8.54Roger Williams University3.350.1%1st Place
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9.82Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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7.57University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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5.87Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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9.93Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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8.11Tufts University3.480.1%1st Place
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13.95University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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12.28Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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7.03Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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10.53Bowdoin College2.900.0%1st Place
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10.15Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.3Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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6.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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9.75SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
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11.16Wesleyan University2.710.0%1st Place
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9.5Harvard University3.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 11.3% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Lopez | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Ian Towill | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 3.7% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.6% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.1% |
| Natalie Salk | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 44.5% |
| John Silvestri | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 18.6% | 14.8% |
| Marlena Fauer | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Peter Edmunds | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% |
| Colin Smith | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Sommer | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Steel | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| John McGlynn | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% |
| Gram Slattery | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.