← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University4.10+4.16vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University3.10+6.79vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+5.29vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University3.37+3.84vs Predicted
-
5Roger Williams University3.95+0.65vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College3.49+1.50vs Predicted
-
7Washington College2.84+2.79vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College2.63+2.38vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College3.55-1.70vs Predicted
-
10Brown University3.69-3.46vs Predicted
-
11Salve Regina University2.29+0.79vs Predicted
-
12Bowdoin College3.52-4.71vs Predicted
-
13Boston University3.00-3.65vs Predicted
-
14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-3.98vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont3.41-7.33vs Predicted
-
16University of Connecticut0.76-0.44vs Predicted
-
17Wesleyan University1.49-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.16Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
-
8.79Harvard University3.100.0%1st Place
-
8.29St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
-
7.84Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
-
5.65Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
7.5Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
-
9.79Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
-
10.38SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
-
7.3Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
-
6.54Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
-
11.79Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
-
7.29Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
-
9.35Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
-
10.02Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
-
7.67University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
-
15.56University of Connecticut0.760.0%1st Place
-
14.08Wesleyan University1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Kiss | 15.0% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Michas | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Ian Liberty | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| William Hutchings | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 0.8% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 2.8% |
| IG Schottlaender | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 7.9% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Jensen | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 16.8% | 6.1% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Fraser | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Ford | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Nate Jermain | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| William Kresic | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 16.4% | 58.9% |
| Molly Haley | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 27.8% | 25.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.