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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.10+4.09vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.49+5.29vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.95+2.75vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.55+3.21vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+5.42vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+2.47vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.41+0.65vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.52-0.82vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.69-2.18vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.37-2.32vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.10-2.03vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.00-2.85vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.84-3.03vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University2.29-2.07vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut0.76+0.38vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University1.49-1.91vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-7.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09Yale University4.100.2%1st Place
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7.29Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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5.75Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.21Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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10.42SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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8.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.65University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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7.18Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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6.82Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.68Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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8.97Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.15Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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9.97Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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11.93Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
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15.38University of Connecticut0.760.0%1st Place
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14.09Wesleyan University1.490.0%1st Place
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9.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Kiss | 16.4% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| William Macdonald | 12.2% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| IG Schottlaender | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Julia Paxton | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% |
| Ian Liberty | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Nate Jermain | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Croteau | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| William Hutchings | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Jason Michas | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Cameron Fraser | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| Christopher Jensen | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 15.8% | 7.4% |
| William Kresic | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 7.7% | 16.9% | 57.0% |
| Molly Haley | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 28.4% | 24.3% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.