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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.10+7.63vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.37+5.75vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.10+2.23vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.84+5.92vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.41+2.47vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.49+1.57vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.63+3.59vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.52-0.85vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.95-3.09vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.00-0.89vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.69-4.20vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-3.69vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.55-5.78vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut0.76+1.51vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University2.29-3.29vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University1.49-1.87vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-7.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.63Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.75Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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5.23Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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9.92Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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7.47University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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7.57Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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10.59SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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7.15Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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5.91Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.11Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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6.8Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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8.31St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.22Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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15.51University of Connecticut0.760.0%1st Place
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11.71Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
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14.13Wesleyan University1.490.0%1st Place
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10.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Michas | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| William Hutchings | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Kiss | 13.4% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 2.1% |
| Nate Jermain | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Scott Houck | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 2.6% |
| Michael Croteau | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| William Macdonald | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Fraser | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Judge Ryan | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| IG Schottlaender | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| William Kresic | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 6.9% | 16.6% | 59.5% |
| Christopher Jensen | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 6.2% |
| Molly Haley | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 29.2% | 24.6% |
| Christopher Ford | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.