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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.69+5.48vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.49+5.31vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+5.27vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.37+3.87vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.55+1.96vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.95-0.09vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.05+2.00vs Predicted
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8Yale University4.10-2.80vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.00+0.37vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.41-2.47vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.84-1.07vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-2.18vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College3.52-5.66vs Predicted
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14Wesleyan University1.49+0.16vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.63-4.41vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut0.76-0.47vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University2.29-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.48Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.31Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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8.27St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.87Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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6.96Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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5.91Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.0Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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5.2Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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9.37Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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7.53University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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9.93Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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9.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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7.34Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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14.16Wesleyan University1.490.0%1st Place
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10.59SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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15.53University of Connecticut0.760.0%1st Place
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11.73Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judge Ryan | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Scott Houck | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Ian Liberty | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| William Hutchings | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| IG Schottlaender | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 0.3% |
| Morgan Kiss | 14.3% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Fraser | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Nate Jermain | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
| Christopher Ford | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Molly Haley | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 28.7% | 26.4% |
| Julia Paxton | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 3.3% |
| William Kresic | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 18.9% | 56.4% |
| Christopher Jensen | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.