Race 3B

ashley-river

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Jonnie Ciffolillo 60.7% 23.8% 10.8% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kenneth Buck 8.9% 17.1% 16.7% 16.5% 15.4% 12.5% 8.3% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Rowan Barnes 6.7% 12.8% 16.4% 16.8% 16.8% 14.0% 10.1% 4.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Trevin Brown 3.5% 7.1% 8.4% 12.2% 13.1% 16.0% 17.8% 12.3% 6.3% 2.9% 0.4%
Caz Doyle 6.8% 13.3% 15.6% 17.2% 15.8% 13.8% 8.6% 6.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Noah Jost 8.3% 16.2% 18.3% 16.4% 16.8% 12.2% 7.8% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
John Hinchey 2.3% 3.8% 6.6% 7.3% 9.2% 12.7% 17.2% 17.3% 14.4% 7.2% 2.0%
Joey Dunn 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 4.3% 4.5% 6.5% 10.9% 18.3% 21.1% 18.1% 11.2%
Lauren Cooper 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.6% 3.6% 5.9% 12.0% 16.4% 23.8% 29.9%
Patrick Winecoff 0.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.6% 2.4% 3.9% 5.7% 10.3% 16.1% 23.8% 32.2%
Garrett Holt 0.4% 1.1% 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 4.7% 7.6% 12.4% 19.9% 23.2% 24.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.