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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.62+4.03vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.41+1.14vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.18+0.66vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.15+2.40vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire1.35+3.83vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.96+1.03vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.07-0.33vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.11-1.36vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.64-1.12vs Predicted
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10McGill University1.67-2.02vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.64-0.09vs Predicted
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12Amherst College-0.49+1.55vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.67-2.00vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.12-4.50vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut0.24-4.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03Roger Williams University2.620.1%1st Place
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3.14Tufts University3.410.3%1st Place
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3.66Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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6.4Roger Williams University2.150.1%1st Place
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8.83University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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7.03Roger Williams University1.960.1%1st Place
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6.67Brown University2.070.1%1st Place
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6.64Roger Williams University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.88University of Vermont1.640.0%1st Place
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7.98McGill University1.670.0%1st Place
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10.91University of Rhode Island0.640.0%1st Place
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13.55Amherst College-0.490.0%1st Place
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11.0Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.670.0%1st Place
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9.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.120.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Connecticut0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 26.6% | 23.2% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Storck | 19.9% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Gargula | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| William Dykes | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Alexander Rudkin | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Emmett Weeks | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jeffrey Chace | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Yann Cudennec | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Samuel Morley | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 14.6% | 16.1% | 11.1% |
| Alex Dion | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 20.2% | 53.0% |
| John Cavoores | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 15.9% | 17.9% | 9.7% |
| Ellen Kintz | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 8.4% | 2.8% |
| Myles Gibbs | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 22.8% | 19.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.