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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+2.66vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.41+1.14vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.15+3.32vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.62+1.10vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.07+1.71vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.64+2.00vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.11-0.49vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.67+2.81vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.12+0.52vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire1.35-1.11vs Predicted
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11McGill University1.67-3.08vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.64-0.87vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut0.24-0.95vs Predicted
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14Amherst College-0.49-0.69vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.96-8.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.66Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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3.14Tufts University3.410.3%1st Place
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6.32Roger Williams University2.150.1%1st Place
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5.1Roger Williams University2.620.1%1st Place
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6.71Brown University2.070.1%1st Place
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8.0University of Vermont1.640.0%1st Place
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6.51Roger Williams University2.110.1%1st Place
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10.81Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.670.0%1st Place
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9.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.120.0%1st Place
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8.89University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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7.92McGill University1.670.0%1st Place
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11.13University of Rhode Island0.640.0%1st Place
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12.05University of Connecticut0.240.0%1st Place
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13.31Amherst College-0.490.0%1st Place
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6.91Roger Williams University1.960.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Storck | 20.6% | 19.8% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 26.2% | 21.8% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Gargula | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 10.0% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emmett Weeks | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Jeffrey Chace | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| John Cavoores | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 15.7% | 17.3% | 9.3% |
| Ellen Kintz | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 3.2% |
| William Dykes | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Yann Cudennec | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Samuel Morley | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 17.5% | 17.1% | 10.8% |
| Myles Gibbs | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 16.2% | 24.0% | 21.5% |
| Alex Dion | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 18.5% | 48.7% |
| Alexander Rudkin | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.