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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.03vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+3.25vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+8.40vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.94+4.56vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.68+0.60vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.61+3.76vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.27+4.05vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+1.89vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.03+0.45vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.07+1.41vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.56-3.39vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.39-5.23vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.87-1.01vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.29-7.01vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.07-2.41vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.27-1.35vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-8.13vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03-2.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.03Harvard University3.1821.0%1st Place
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5.25Brown University2.9113.8%1st Place
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11.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.093.5%1st Place
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8.56Roger Williams University1.944.2%1st Place
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5.6Roger Williams University2.6810.8%1st Place
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9.76University of Rhode Island1.613.9%1st Place
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11.05Tufts University1.272.7%1st Place
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9.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.033.0%1st Place
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9.45Bowdoin College2.033.0%1st Place
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11.41Northeastern University1.072.2%1st Place
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7.61Boston College2.566.5%1st Place
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6.77Dartmouth College2.399.3%1st Place
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11.99University of Vermont0.872.1%1st Place
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6.99Yale University2.296.7%1st Place
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12.59Boston University1.071.9%1st Place
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14.65Connecticut College0.270.8%1st Place
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8.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.933.8%1st Place
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15.14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.030.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 21.0% | 17.4% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Derry | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Mathieu Dale | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.8% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| Emily Bornarth | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 4.2% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 6.5% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Porter Bell | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 9.1% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 17.9% | 28.6% |
| Maks Groom | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 38.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.