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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University1.90+5.30vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.51+5.86vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.59+4.54vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.01+5.65vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.74+1.74vs Predicted
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6Yale University1.37+1.70vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.60+0.15vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.49-0.08vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.41+2.58vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.42-2.32vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.85-4.72vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.62-0.98vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.18-6.71vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-5.85vs Predicted
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15Yale University0.07-2.49vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University0.40-4.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3Yale University1.909.4%1st Place
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7.86Tufts University1.516.1%1st Place
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7.54Tufts University1.596.8%1st Place
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9.65Roger Williams University1.014.6%1st Place
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6.74Brown University1.749.2%1st Place
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7.7Yale University1.377.0%1st Place
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7.15Roger Williams University1.607.8%1st Place
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7.92Northwestern University1.496.9%1st Place
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11.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.412.9%1st Place
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7.68Brown University1.426.9%1st Place
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6.28Brown University1.859.3%1st Place
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11.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.622.6%1st Place
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6.29Yale University2.1810.2%1st Place
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8.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.405.9%1st Place
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12.51Yale University0.071.8%1st Place
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11.63Roger Williams University0.402.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Sih | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Clark Morris | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Gus Macaulay | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Luke Hosek | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 5.3% |
| Cam Spriggs | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Ximena Escobar | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Jack Roman | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Shea Smith | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Julian Henderson | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 19.7% |
| Connor Macken | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Laura Hamilton | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Gavin VanManen | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 13.0% |
| Mateo Farina | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Beck Lorsch | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 30.9% |
| Reid Nelson | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 18.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.