Race 3A

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Nathan Sih 10.1% 10.5% 10.5% 8.9% 9.2% 8.6% 6.0% 6.4% 6.5% 5.5% 5.4% 4.6% 3.5% 2.2% 1.4% 0.5%
Shea Smith 6.0% 5.9% 6.5% 7.0% 5.8% 6.5% 6.2% 7.5% 7.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.1% 6.2% 6.5% 3.5% 2.1%
Cam Spriggs 9.0% 8.5% 9.0% 8.6% 9.1% 9.1% 8.1% 6.8% 6.9% 6.0% 5.7% 4.4% 3.8% 2.7% 1.7% 0.7%
Luke Hosek 4.5% 4.5% 5.2% 4.5% 5.3% 5.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.6% 6.4% 6.7% 8.1% 7.4% 9.0% 8.9% 5.3%
Mateo Farina 11.1% 10.3% 8.8% 8.7% 9.3% 7.3% 8.6% 7.3% 5.8% 5.4% 5.7% 5.0% 3.6% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3%
Beck Lorsch 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 3.0% 2.1% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.5% 4.0% 6.1% 6.6% 9.8% 15.6% 31.8%
Jack Roman 8.5% 6.7% 8.3% 7.8% 7.6% 7.8% 6.5% 7.8% 7.0% 6.0% 6.6% 6.3% 4.7% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9%
Laura Hamilton 9.6% 9.4% 8.8% 9.4% 7.6% 7.6% 8.3% 7.9% 6.9% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 3.8% 2.1% 1.8% 0.6%
Reid Nelson 2.2% 1.8% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 3.7% 4.2% 3.8% 4.7% 5.3% 6.9% 6.6% 7.6% 12.2% 14.4% 18.4%
Bradley Whiteway 6.1% 6.8% 6.1% 7.2% 6.9% 6.2% 6.2% 6.7% 7.8% 7.3% 6.9% 5.8% 7.0% 6.2% 4.1% 2.6%
Ximena Escobar 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 5.9% 6.6% 7.3% 8.1% 5.8% 6.6% 7.0% 6.5% 7.6% 6.5% 5.5% 5.0% 1.4%
Clark Morris 6.6% 6.0% 6.3% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 7.4% 7.4% 6.3% 8.0% 7.2% 6.1% 7.6% 5.2% 4.0% 1.7%
Julian Henderson 2.1% 1.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.8% 3.2% 3.6% 2.9% 4.9% 5.3% 5.5% 7.6% 9.8% 10.9% 15.8% 19.3%
Gavin VanManen 2.7% 3.5% 3.2% 4.2% 3.4% 3.9% 3.5% 5.7% 5.2% 5.6% 5.9% 7.0% 9.0% 10.7% 14.3% 12.2%
Connor Macken 5.8% 8.3% 6.3% 6.0% 6.4% 7.0% 7.3% 7.8% 7.3% 7.8% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 5.2% 3.1% 1.5%
Gus Macaulay 7.0% 7.4% 7.0% 7.8% 7.5% 7.6% 6.7% 6.8% 7.3% 6.5% 6.6% 7.2% 5.9% 4.8% 2.9% 0.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.