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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University1.90+5.19vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.01+7.67vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+5.14vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.51+4.01vs Predicted
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5Yale University0.07+7.39vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.85+0.39vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.18-0.86vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.41+3.57vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.60-1.73vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49-2.00vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.59-3.59vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.74-5.06vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.42-5.31vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.62-3.13vs Predicted
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15Yale University1.37-7.10vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University0.40-4.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19Yale University1.9010.3%1st Place
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9.67Roger Williams University1.014.4%1st Place
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8.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.406.2%1st Place
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8.01Tufts University1.515.7%1st Place
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12.39Yale University0.071.9%1st Place
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6.39Brown University1.859.6%1st Place
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6.14Yale University2.1810.7%1st Place
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11.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.411.9%1st Place
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7.27Roger Williams University1.607.8%1st Place
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8.0Northwestern University1.495.8%1st Place
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7.41Tufts University1.597.3%1st Place
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6.94Brown University1.748.1%1st Place
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7.69Brown University1.428.0%1st Place
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10.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.622.6%1st Place
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7.9Yale University1.376.6%1st Place
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11.41Roger Williams University0.403.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Sih | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Luke Hosek | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.6% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Clark Morris | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Beck Lorsch | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 16.7% | 28.6% |
| Laura Hamilton | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Mateo Farina | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Julian Henderson | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 15.7% | 18.4% |
| Jack Roman | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Shea Smith | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| Gus Macaulay | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Cam Spriggs | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Connor Macken | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Gavin VanManen | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.1% |
| Ximena Escobar | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Reid Nelson | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.