Race 3B

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Sean Golden 19.7% 16.7% 15.5% 12.5% 9.9% 8.4% 5.1% 5.1% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Hendi 17.4% 16.3% 14.7% 11.9% 10.6% 7.2% 7.7% 5.2% 3.7% 2.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Christopher Stessing 11.4% 10.2% 11.9% 11.8% 10.0% 11.0% 10.0% 7.7% 6.8% 4.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Adam Keally 5.6% 7.8% 6.3% 8.3% 8.4% 7.7% 9.8% 9.7% 9.5% 9.3% 8.1% 6.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Mark Miedama 6.0% 6.8% 7.3% 7.8% 9.3% 7.7% 10.1% 9.7% 8.6% 9.4% 7.4% 6.4% 3.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Thomas Greathouse 2.7% 2.8% 2.1% 4.0% 4.8% 5.8% 6.9% 6.0% 10.2% 8.7% 10.7% 14.3% 14.6% 6.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Dan Ricker 8.7% 8.1% 7.8% 8.8% 9.5% 9.6% 9.4% 8.4% 9.4% 7.3% 6.0% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Joseph David 10.5% 11.1% 11.0% 11.7% 10.4% 10.6% 7.9% 9.3% 7.1% 5.0% 3.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Annie Eckmann 2.9% 2.8% 3.2% 3.7% 4.6% 4.1% 5.2% 7.5% 8.2% 11.1% 12.4% 13.9% 15.4% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Marissa Golison 6.8% 6.4% 7.9% 7.2% 7.5% 11.0% 9.4% 10.2% 9.7% 9.3% 6.8% 4.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Alex Hitchcock 2.3% 2.5% 2.1% 2.8% 3.5% 4.9% 2.9% 5.2% 5.7% 7.8% 11.2% 16.3% 22.8% 9.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Richard Ross 2.4% 3.5% 2.8% 3.9% 4.7% 4.9% 6.7% 6.4% 6.6% 9.5% 13.6% 12.9% 16.3% 5.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Samuel Patterson 3.4% 4.2% 6.5% 4.9% 6.2% 6.6% 7.8% 8.7% 8.8% 11.3% 12.1% 10.0% 6.7% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Alexis Petter 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 2.5% 23.3% 72.7%
Jela-Ni McCarthy 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.7% 4.8% 11.1% 59.4% 12.9% 0.3%
Douglas Hamilton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.1% 8.0% 61.9% 26.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.