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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+5.41vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+6.52vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+4.55vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+4.95vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.18-0.22vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22+2.39vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.22+0.85vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63+2.16vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.07+4.14vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.87+2.89vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.56-2.72vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.29-3.97vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.85-6.86vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.61-3.17vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.75-8.75vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.07-3.77vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03-1.47vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.27-2.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41Roger Williams University2.689.2%1st Place
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8.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.8%1st Place
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7.55Bowdoin College2.387.8%1st Place
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8.95Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.774.4%1st Place
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4.78Harvard University3.1815.6%1st Place
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8.39Brown University2.225.6%1st Place
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7.85Tufts University2.225.9%1st Place
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10.16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.633.4%1st Place
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13.14Boston University1.071.6%1st Place
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12.89University of Vermont0.871.8%1st Place
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8.28Boston College2.565.5%1st Place
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8.03Yale University2.297.1%1st Place
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6.14Yale University2.859.7%1st Place
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10.83University of Rhode Island1.613.5%1st Place
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6.25Dartmouth College2.759.6%1st Place
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12.23Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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15.53Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.030.7%1st Place
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15.07Connecticut College0.270.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.6% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Brock | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Porter Bell | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 16.6% | 9.3% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 9.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 1.7% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 10.4% | 20.5% | 39.8% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 21.8% | 30.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.