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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.49+5.48vs Predicted
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2University of Minnesota2.25+2.62vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University3.36-0.42vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin2.85-0.48vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin2.72-1.19vs Predicted
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6University of Minnesota1.75-0.02vs Predicted
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8University of Notre Dame1.25-1.10vs Predicted
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9University of Chicago0.36+0.30vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University0.96-2.15vs Predicted
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12Michigan Technological University-0.26-1.12vs Predicted
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13University of Illinois-0.75-1.11vs Predicted
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14Northern Michigan University-0.44-2.75vs Predicted
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15University of Notre Dame-0.25-4.31vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.35-7.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.48Northwestern University1.490.0%1st Place
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4.62University of Minnesota2.250.1%1st Place
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2.58Northwestern University3.360.4%1st Place
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3.52University of Wisconsin2.850.2%1st Place
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3.81University of Wisconsin2.720.1%1st Place
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5.98University of Minnesota1.750.1%1st Place
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6.9University of Notre Dame1.250.0%1st Place
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9.3University of Chicago0.360.0%1st Place
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7.85Northwestern University0.960.0%1st Place
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10.88Michigan Technological University-0.260.0%1st Place
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11.89University of Illinois-0.750.0%1st Place
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11.25Northern Michigan University-0.440.0%1st Place
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10.69University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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9.25University of Michigan0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wien | 4.1% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Thompson | 10.1% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tod Reynolds | 35.1% | 22.7% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Fox | 18.8% | 19.5% | 15.2% | 16.9% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Boylan | 13.5% | 18.4% | 18.4% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Allison Prange | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Walden | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Luke Hiller | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 4.5% |
| Nicholas Campbell | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 15.8% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Timothy McElreath | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 15.0% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| Matt Kopecki | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 20.9% | 35.2% |
| Caleb Kiser | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 15.9% | 18.9% | 23.2% |
| John O'Brien | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 16.1% | 19.1% | 13.6% |
| Alex Bogatko | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 8.8% | 3.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.