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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.71+4.79vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.48+4.33vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.38+4.24vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.06+4.15vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.55+1.43vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.05+6.22vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.67+2.43vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.42+2.13vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+0.75vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.37-3.10vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-0.71vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-2.23vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.09-5.13vs Predicted
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14Boston College1.97-4.82vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-0.15vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.59-4.58vs Predicted
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17Boston University0.97-4.37vs Predicted
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18University of Texas1.01-5.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Yale University2.7113.6%1st Place
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6.33Harvard University2.489.7%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College2.388.1%1st Place
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8.15Bowdoin College2.066.6%1st Place
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6.43Yale University2.5510.8%1st Place
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12.22University of Vermont1.052.1%1st Place
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9.43Tufts University1.675.0%1st Place
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10.13University of Rhode Island1.423.6%1st Place
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9.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.453.6%1st Place
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6.9Brown University2.379.6%1st Place
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10.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.583.6%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.5%1st Place
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7.87Roger Williams University2.096.6%1st Place
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9.18Boston College1.974.9%1st Place
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14.85Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.330.9%1st Place
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11.42Northeastern University1.592.7%1st Place
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12.63Boston University0.971.9%1st Place
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12.61University of Texas1.012.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.6% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.7% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Emma Cowles | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| John Eastman | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Blake Behrens | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Peter Joslin | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 38.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| Matias Martin | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 12.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.