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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.71+4.74vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.38+5.24vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.59+8.70vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.37+3.07vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.48+1.19vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+3.77vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.67+2.37vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+1.91vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.55-2.75vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-0.01vs Predicted
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11Boston University0.97+1.44vs Predicted
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12Boston College1.97-2.60vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.42-2.48vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.09-6.22vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-0.36vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.06-7.56vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.05-4.68vs Predicted
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18University of Texas1.01-5.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.74Yale University2.7112.9%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College2.387.9%1st Place
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11.7Northeastern University1.592.9%1st Place
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7.07Brown University2.378.1%1st Place
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6.19Harvard University2.4810.5%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.6%1st Place
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9.37Tufts University1.674.7%1st Place
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9.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.0%1st Place
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6.25Yale University2.5511.8%1st Place
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9.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.2%1st Place
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12.44Boston University0.972.1%1st Place
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9.4Boston College1.974.9%1st Place
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10.52University of Rhode Island1.423.7%1st Place
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7.78Roger Williams University2.096.5%1st Place
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14.64Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.331.5%1st Place
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8.44Bowdoin College2.064.5%1st Place
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12.32University of Vermont1.052.5%1st Place
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12.24University of Texas1.012.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 12.9% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 7.5% |
| Blake Behrens | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| John Eastman | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Emma Cowles | 11.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 13.9% |
| Peter Joslin | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.6% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 36.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 11.3% |
| Matias Martin | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.