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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+8.86vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+8.12vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+6.61vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.71+1.67vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.42+5.35vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.38+1.12vs Predicted
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7Boston College1.97+2.17vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.60+5.86vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-0.82vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.09-2.19vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.55-4.67vs Predicted
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12Boston University0.97+0.30vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.05-0.86vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.67-4.60vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-3.46vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-1.69vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.48-10.80vs Predicted
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18Brown University2.37-10.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.035.0%1st Place
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10.12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.583.9%1st Place
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9.61Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.2%1st Place
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5.67Yale University2.7112.8%1st Place
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10.35University of Rhode Island1.423.9%1st Place
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7.12Dartmouth College2.388.1%1st Place
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9.17Boston College1.974.9%1st Place
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13.86Connecticut College0.601.6%1st Place
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8.18Bowdoin College2.066.5%1st Place
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7.81Roger Williams University2.097.1%1st Place
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6.33Yale University2.5510.7%1st Place
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12.3Boston University0.972.1%1st Place
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12.14University of Vermont1.052.1%1st Place
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9.4Tufts University1.674.7%1st Place
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11.54Northeastern University1.592.4%1st Place
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14.31Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.331.5%1st Place
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6.2Harvard University2.4810.3%1st Place
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7.03Brown University2.378.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Robert Ulmer | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 12.8% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| William Michels | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Peter Joslin | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 17.0% | 24.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Emma Cowles | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.5% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 10.0% |
| John Eastman | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 16.2% | 32.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.