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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.49+5.46vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University3.36+0.57vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin2.72+0.70vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin2.85-0.50vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University0.96+3.02vs Predicted
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6University of Minnesota2.25-1.22vs Predicted
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7University of Chicago0.49+1.83vs Predicted
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8University of Minnesota1.75-2.10vs Predicted
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10University of Illinois-0.75+1.88vs Predicted
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11University of Notre Dame1.25-3.78vs Predicted
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13University of Notre Dame-0.25-2.13vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.35-4.60vs Predicted
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15Michigan Technological University-0.26-4.25vs Predicted
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16Northern Michigan University-0.44-4.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.46Northwestern University1.490.0%1st Place
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2.57Northwestern University3.360.3%1st Place
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3.7University of Wisconsin2.720.2%1st Place
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3.5University of Wisconsin2.850.2%1st Place
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8.02Northwestern University0.960.0%1st Place
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4.78University of Minnesota2.250.1%1st Place
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8.83University of Chicago0.490.0%1st Place
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5.9University of Minnesota1.750.1%1st Place
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11.88University of Illinois-0.750.0%1st Place
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7.22University of Notre Dame1.250.0%1st Place
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10.87University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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9.4University of Michigan0.350.0%1st Place
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10.75Michigan Technological University-0.260.0%1st Place
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11.12Northern Michigan University-0.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wien | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Tod Reynolds | 32.8% | 23.5% | 19.3% | 12.1% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Boylan | 16.6% | 18.3% | 16.1% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Fox | 18.2% | 20.2% | 17.2% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Campbell | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Matthew Thompson | 10.0% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Scott | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% |
| Allison Prange | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Kopecki | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 20.0% | 35.5% |
| Nathaniel Walden | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| John O'Brien | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 17.6% | 17.3% | 17.4% |
| Alex Bogatko | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 5.1% |
| Timothy McElreath | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 16.7% | 18.2% | 15.4% |
| Caleb Kiser | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 18.6% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.