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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College1.71+4.00vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.10+2.47vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.69+2.51vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.84+1.39vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.24+5.10vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.18+1.36vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University0.75+1.32vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.71+0.51vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.20-2.23vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.54-1.05vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.79-3.38vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.25-2.15vs Predicted
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13Boston University-1.31+0.35vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.33-8.03vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College-1.05-2.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.0Dartmouth College1.7114.0%1st Place
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4.47Harvard University2.1015.3%1st Place
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5.51Brown University1.699.8%1st Place
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5.39Bowdoin College1.8412.1%1st Place
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10.1University of Vermont0.242.1%1st Place
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7.36Northeastern University1.186.4%1st Place
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8.32Roger Williams University0.754.2%1st Place
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8.51Tufts University0.714.5%1st Place
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6.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.207.0%1st Place
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8.95Tufts University0.543.5%1st Place
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7.62University of Rhode Island0.796.3%1st Place
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9.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.252.9%1st Place
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13.35Boston University-1.310.6%1st Place
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5.97Brown University1.3310.2%1st Place
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12.84Connecticut College-1.050.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bella casaretto | 14.0% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 15.3% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McNamara | 9.8% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Russler | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 17.2% | 12.3% | 5.4% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Michaela ODonnell | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Julia Shannon-Grillo | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 1.5% |
| Mercedes Escandon | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| Leah Rickard | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Allison Nystrom | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 11.2% | 4.8% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 9.1% | 21.9% | 48.9% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Viola Henry | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 29.1% | 34.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.