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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.10+3.41vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.69+3.48vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.25+6.76vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.33+2.09vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.71+3.70vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.18+1.39vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.79+0.64vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.20-1.22vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College1.71-3.94vs Predicted
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10Boston University-1.31+3.30vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University0.75-2.76vs Predicted
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12Tufts University0.54-3.23vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College-1.05-0.07vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.24-3.84vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College1.84-9.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41Harvard University2.1017.2%1st Place
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5.48Brown University1.6911.1%1st Place
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9.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.252.4%1st Place
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6.09Brown University1.339.7%1st Place
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8.7Tufts University0.713.9%1st Place
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7.39Northeastern University1.185.7%1st Place
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7.64University of Rhode Island0.795.1%1st Place
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6.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.208.2%1st Place
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5.06Dartmouth College1.7112.2%1st Place
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13.3Boston University-1.310.4%1st Place
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8.24Roger Williams University0.754.8%1st Place
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8.77Tufts University0.543.9%1st Place
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12.93Connecticut College-1.050.9%1st Place
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10.16University of Vermont0.242.5%1st Place
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5.29Bowdoin College1.8412.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordelia Burn | 17.2% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McNamara | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Allison Nystrom | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 4.1% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Julia Shannon-Grillo | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Leah Rickard | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| Mercedes Escandon | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| bella casaretto | 12.2% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 9.7% | 21.6% | 47.5% |
| Michaela ODonnell | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 2.1% |
| Viola Henry | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 27.9% | 36.4% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 17.4% | 12.5% | 5.2% |
| Lauren Russler | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.