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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.49+5.45vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University3.36+0.56vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University0.96+4.82vs Predicted
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4University of Illinois-0.75+7.84vs Predicted
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5University of Notre Dame-0.25+5.86vs Predicted
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6University of Minnesota2.25-1.14vs Predicted
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7University of Notre Dame1.25-0.12vs Predicted
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8University of Minnesota1.75-2.12vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin2.72-5.16vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.35-1.54vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin2.85-9.45vs Predicted
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15University of Chicago0.49-5.91vs Predicted
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16Michigan Technological University-0.26-5.24vs Predicted
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17Northern Michigan University-0.44-5.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.45Northwestern University1.490.1%1st Place
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2.56Northwestern University3.360.3%1st Place
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7.82Northwestern University0.960.0%1st Place
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11.84University of Illinois-0.750.0%1st Place
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10.86University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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4.86University of Minnesota2.250.1%1st Place
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6.88University of Notre Dame1.250.0%1st Place
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5.88University of Minnesota1.750.1%1st Place
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3.84University of Wisconsin2.720.1%1st Place
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9.46University of Michigan0.350.0%1st Place
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3.55University of Wisconsin2.850.2%1st Place
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9.09University of Chicago0.490.0%1st Place
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10.76Michigan Technological University-0.260.0%1st Place
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11.14Northern Michigan University-0.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wien | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Tod Reynolds | 32.9% | 24.9% | 17.9% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Campbell | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Matt Kopecki | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 19.0% | 34.8% |
| John O'Brien | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 19.8% | 16.3% |
| Matthew Thompson | 8.5% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Walden | 4.0% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Allison Prange | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Boylan | 14.9% | 17.2% | 16.6% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Bogatko | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% |
| Andrew Fox | 17.6% | 18.9% | 18.3% | 15.5% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Scott | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| Timothy McElreath | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 18.8% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| Caleb Kiser | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 14.5% | 22.3% | 20.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.