Race 6A

wet-your-willie

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Andrew Fox 19.3% 19.5% 16.4% 15.3% 12.7% 7.9% 4.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tod Reynolds 31.8% 26.8% 16.6% 12.8% 6.5% 2.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathaniel Walden 4.1% 4.6% 6.9% 7.8% 6.8% 9.2% 11.3% 14.4% 12.3% 10.7% 6.0% 3.2% 2.3% 0.4%
Matthew Thompson 9.4% 10.7% 15.1% 14.6% 14.0% 12.4% 10.5% 5.9% 4.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Campbell 2.6% 2.2% 3.5% 5.8% 7.2% 10.0% 9.6% 13.5% 12.7% 12.2% 9.9% 5.9% 3.7% 1.2%
Brendan Boylan 15.6% 15.9% 19.2% 14.8% 12.4% 9.5% 6.0% 3.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John O'Brien 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.4% 4.8% 6.1% 7.0% 10.2% 13.5% 14.2% 17.5% 15.5%
Allison Prange 6.9% 7.4% 9.2% 9.6% 12.4% 13.2% 12.2% 10.0% 7.6% 5.7% 4.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Andrew Wien 4.6% 4.8% 6.3% 8.1% 12.1% 12.2% 13.3% 12.5% 9.5% 7.6% 5.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.2%
Anna Scott 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 4.3% 6.5% 8.3% 9.9% 13.8% 12.4% 11.4% 13.3% 7.7% 4.4%
Alex Bogatko 1.3% 2.8% 1.0% 2.5% 3.7% 5.7% 6.7% 8.4% 12.9% 11.2% 14.3% 13.7% 9.9% 5.9%
Caleb Kiser 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 3.0% 4.7% 5.2% 9.7% 11.2% 17.5% 18.9% 22.5%
Timothy McElreath 1.0% 1.6% 0.9% 1.5% 2.1% 3.2% 4.6% 4.3% 7.6% 10.2% 12.6% 15.5% 18.9% 16.0%
Matt Kopecki 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 2.3% 3.2% 4.1% 3.5% 6.9% 9.9% 13.2% 19.4% 33.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.