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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin2.85+2.46vs Predicted
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2University of Notre Dame-0.25+8.64vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University3.36-0.44vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin2.72-0.26vs Predicted
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5University of Minnesota2.25-0.21vs Predicted
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6Northwestern University0.96+1.98vs Predicted
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7University of Notre Dame1.25-0.09vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan0.35+1.33vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.49-2.42vs Predicted
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10University of Chicago0.49-0.82vs Predicted
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11University of Minnesota1.75-5.02vs Predicted
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13Michigan Technological University-0.26-2.12vs Predicted
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14Northern Michigan University-0.44-2.82vs Predicted
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17University of Illinois-0.75-5.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.46University of Wisconsin2.850.2%1st Place
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10.64University of Notre Dame-0.250.0%1st Place
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2.56Northwestern University3.360.3%1st Place
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3.74University of Wisconsin2.720.2%1st Place
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4.79University of Minnesota2.250.1%1st Place
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7.98Northwestern University0.960.0%1st Place
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6.91University of Notre Dame1.250.0%1st Place
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9.33University of Michigan0.350.0%1st Place
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6.58Northwestern University1.490.0%1st Place
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9.18University of Chicago0.490.0%1st Place
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5.98University of Minnesota1.750.1%1st Place
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10.88Michigan Technological University-0.260.0%1st Place
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11.18Northern Michigan University-0.440.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Illinois-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Fox | 18.8% | 21.4% | 17.2% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John O'Brien | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| Tod Reynolds | 34.2% | 22.7% | 18.1% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Boylan | 15.9% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Thompson | 8.7% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Campbell | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Nathaniel Walden | 3.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Alex Bogatko | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 5.7% |
| Andrew Wien | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 14.9% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Anna Scott | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 4.1% |
| Allison Prange | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Timothy McElreath | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 18.7% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| Caleb Kiser | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 19.9% | 22.4% |
| Matt Kopecki | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 21.4% | 33.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.