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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University1.48+10.20vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.70+1.92vs Predicted
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3Maine Maritime Academy2.03+6.25vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.51+0.23vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.96+4.20vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.03+6.66vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.10+1.77vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.65-4.04vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University2.08-0.20vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.56-2.61vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.03-5.19vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.83-1.92vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut1.96-3.82vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.19-2.21vs Predicted
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15McGill University0.93-2.03vs Predicted
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16Bentley University0.12-0.67vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire0.38-2.31vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.23-6.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.2Harvard University1.480.0%1st Place
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3.92Boston University3.700.2%1st Place
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9.25Maine Maritime Academy2.030.0%1st Place
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4.23University of Pennsylvania3.510.2%1st Place
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9.2Roger Williams University1.960.0%1st Place
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12.66Northeastern University1.030.0%1st Place
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8.77Dartmouth College2.100.0%1st Place
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3.96Tufts University3.650.2%1st Place
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8.8Salve Regina University2.080.0%1st Place
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7.39Bowdoin College2.560.1%1st Place
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5.81Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.830.0%1st Place
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9.18University of Connecticut1.960.0%1st Place
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11.79Yale University1.190.0%1st Place
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12.97McGill University0.930.0%1st Place
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15.33Bentley University0.120.0%1st Place
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14.69University of New Hampshire0.380.0%1st Place
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11.78Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ames Lyman | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 2.9% |
| Ryan Astwood | 15.8% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 15.9% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollister Poole | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 17.5% | 16.8% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Rudkin | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Colin Henderson | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 7.6% |
| Warren (Trace) Smith | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Duncan Swain | 19.4% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Killian | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Courtney Koos | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Britton | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Michael Rottier | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| William Feldman | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Matt Palardy | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 10.4% |
| Francisco Salas | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 17.8% | 38.5% |
| Daniel BerryPBS | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 19.5% | 26.8% |
| Robert Queisser | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.