Race 1B

wet-your-willie

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jeremy McMahon 35.4% 24.2% 14.8% 11.8% 7.8% 2.6% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Phillip Morley 12.3% 14.7% 13.9% 14.2% 15.2% 9.1% 9.0% 5.8% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Braden Solum 17.2% 16.7% 18.4% 14.3% 11.5% 8.8% 7.0% 3.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rachel Barch 5.2% 8.3% 10.3% 10.4% 10.3% 13.8% 12.3% 9.0% 7.3% 7.0% 3.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Natalie Sinn 8.1% 11.8% 14.3% 14.9% 13.6% 10.9% 9.5% 7.5% 4.3% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Alex Lubben 4.8% 3.7% 5.3% 8.4% 8.2% 10.5% 9.8% 12.4% 10.4% 10.8% 8.2% 5.5% 1.8% 0.2%
Elizabeth Werley 4.7% 6.0% 6.6% 6.3% 9.0% 8.9% 11.0% 12.0% 9.7% 11.6% 7.5% 4.9% 1.8% 0.0%
John Bere 2.4% 4.4% 3.1% 5.0% 5.2% 8.1% 6.7% 11.3% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 11.1% 6.3% 1.9%
Paul Kaplan 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 5.5% 7.0% 7.6% 11.5% 10.9% 12.6% 12.4% 10.3% 7.5% 2.8% 0.6%
Sarah Hughes 2.1% 2.6% 3.8% 2.9% 5.4% 6.8% 8.5% 9.1% 12.5% 11.2% 16.4% 10.4% 6.7% 1.6%
Jake Mohan 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 3.6% 4.6% 4.8% 8.9% 8.8% 13.2% 21.2% 18.5% 8.7%
Haley Johnson 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% 1.9% 2.5% 3.6% 7.0% 18.8% 61.2%
Kevin Condit 2.5% 1.9% 2.4% 3.2% 3.4% 6.3% 5.4% 8.4% 11.8% 12.4% 14.4% 15.0% 9.9% 3.0%
Andrew Becker 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 2.7% 4.2% 6.7% 7.9% 14.7% 32.7% 22.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.