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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.59+7.99vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.97+5.32vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.57+2.26vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.42+1.86vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.86+3.16vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.28+0.12vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.78+1.79vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.18+2.81vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13+1.82vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy0.94+2.46vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.95+1.13vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University1.14-1.14vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy1.39-3.20vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79-5.90vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-2.35vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-3.93vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy0.83-4.81vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-9.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.99Georgetown University1.595.7%1st Place
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7.32Georgetown University1.977.6%1st Place
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5.26U. S. Naval Academy2.5714.0%1st Place
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5.86Georgetown University2.4211.5%1st Place
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8.16Georgetown University1.866.8%1st Place
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6.12U. S. Naval Academy2.2811.5%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Naval Academy1.785.5%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Naval Academy1.183.1%1st Place
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10.82St. Mary's College of Maryland1.133.2%1st Place
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12.46U. S. Naval Academy0.942.6%1st Place
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12.13Old Dominion University0.951.9%1st Place
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10.86Georgetown University1.142.9%1st Place
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9.8U. S. Naval Academy1.394.5%1st Place
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8.1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.796.5%1st Place
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12.65St. Mary's College of Maryland0.672.1%1st Place
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12.07St. Mary's College of Maryland0.832.8%1st Place
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12.19U. S. Naval Academy0.832.7%1st Place
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8.61St. Mary's College of Maryland1.685.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Smith | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Henry Allgeier | 14.0% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Jack Welburn | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tanner Kelly | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Ava Farley | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| Raam Fox | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.2% |
| Robert Ziman | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 15.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 12.2% |
| Xavier Stoldt | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% |
| Teddy Martin | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.4% |
| Landon Cormie | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 17.4% |
| Lina Carper | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 12.6% |
| Margo Cicero | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 13.6% |
| Nathan Jensen | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.