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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.97+6.54vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.86+6.05vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.42+2.80vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.28+2.18vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.59+3.96vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.95+6.13vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.39+3.00vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.57-2.86vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.18+1.87vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy0.83+2.19vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79-2.81vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.78-3.16vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-4.54vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University1.14-3.23vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13-4.00vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-3.54vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-5.03vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy0.94-5.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.54Georgetown University1.976.8%1st Place
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8.05Georgetown University1.866.2%1st Place
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5.8Georgetown University2.4214.1%1st Place
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6.18U. S. Naval Academy2.2811.1%1st Place
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8.96Georgetown University1.595.4%1st Place
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12.13Old Dominion University0.952.1%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Naval Academy1.393.4%1st Place
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5.14U. S. Naval Academy2.5714.2%1st Place
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10.87U. S. Naval Academy1.182.9%1st Place
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12.19U. S. Naval Academy0.832.4%1st Place
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8.19St. Mary's College of Maryland1.796.1%1st Place
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8.84U. S. Naval Academy1.784.6%1st Place
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8.46St. Mary's College of Maryland1.686.0%1st Place
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10.77Georgetown University1.143.5%1st Place
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11.0St. Mary's College of Maryland1.133.5%1st Place
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12.46St. Mary's College of Maryland0.672.6%1st Place
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11.97St. Mary's College of Maryland0.832.4%1st Place
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12.44U. S. Naval Academy0.942.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Petersen | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Bates | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Enzo Menditto | 14.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Smith | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 14.3% |
| Teddy Martin | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Henry Allgeier | 14.2% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 2.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% |
| Margo Cicero | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 12.6% |
| Landon Cormie | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Tanner Kelly | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Nathan Jensen | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Xavier Stoldt | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% |
| Raam Fox | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 14.8% |
| Lina Carper | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 11.4% |
| Robert Ziman | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 16.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.