Race 4B

wet-your-willie

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Michael Cornew 17.6% 19.2% 16.5% 12.8% 12.5% 9.2% 6.3% 3.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeremy McMahon 32.1% 22.8% 17.3% 13.4% 7.8% 3.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rachel Barch 5.9% 7.4% 8.8% 8.9% 10.2% 13.4% 13.6% 10.8% 11.0% 6.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Braden Solum 13.1% 16.3% 15.5% 15.8% 13.2% 9.9% 7.9% 4.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Natalie Sinn 7.5% 9.9% 12.4% 13.4% 14.0% 13.5% 10.9% 8.9% 5.3% 2.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarah Hughes 1.3% 2.8% 3.7% 2.7% 4.0% 6.6% 7.8% 10.6% 14.6% 18.3% 12.6% 11.1% 3.4% 0.5%
Jenny Robinson 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 2.3% 3.0% 4.8% 6.4% 8.7% 11.3% 20.2% 19.2% 13.9% 5.6%
Paul Kaplan 3.6% 3.4% 4.0% 6.0% 6.1% 8.1% 9.8% 13.0% 14.9% 12.7% 10.4% 5.5% 2.4% 0.1%
Elizabeth Werley 4.3% 3.2% 4.5% 6.0% 7.5% 8.9% 12.9% 14.5% 14.4% 12.4% 7.3% 2.9% 1.2% 0.0%
Phillip Morley 10.0% 10.9% 11.9% 14.2% 14.9% 13.2% 10.0% 8.2% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
John Bere 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% 3.7% 5.0% 7.8% 9.0% 11.2% 14.2% 16.9% 13.9% 7.7% 3.4% 0.3%
Haley Johnson 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% 4.1% 6.7% 12.4% 23.5% 46.9%
Andrew Becker 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% 1.6% 2.4% 3.3% 4.4% 6.8% 14.2% 23.1% 23.1% 17.0%
Matthew Stephens 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 2.6% 3.2% 5.1% 9.6% 16.8% 28.7% 29.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.