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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.87+10.38vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.05+8.77vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.83+4.51vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston4.25+1.61vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.21+4.72vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.84+5.39vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-0.13vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University2.45+4.78vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.96+1.86vs Predicted
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10Boston College4.01-3.24vs Predicted
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11Yale University4.10-4.66vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin3.04-1.10vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.15-3.10vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.55-1.75vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.79-7.67vs Predicted
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16Boston University3.13-5.71vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-7.28vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-7.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.38University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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10.77Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.51Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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5.61College of Charleston4.250.1%1st Place
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9.72Tufts University3.210.0%1st Place
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11.39Georgetown University2.840.0%1st Place
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6.87St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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12.78Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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10.86Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.76Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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6.34Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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10.9University of Wisconsin3.040.0%1st Place
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9.9Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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12.25University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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7.33Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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10.29Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
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9.72Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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10.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hughes | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% |
| Drew Shea | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Michael Ramming | 13.2% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| David Liebenberg | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| Michael Schalka | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| John Silvestri | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 20.3% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% |
| Erika Reineke | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Kiss | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Connor Trepton | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 16.4% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 7.0% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Brendan Cook | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% |
| David Larson | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.