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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.25+4.90vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.04+8.85vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.01+3.73vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.21+5.73vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.96+5.82vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+3.63vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.13+3.08vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.87+3.12vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.84+2.37vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.10-3.58vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-0.06vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University2.45+1.24vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.15-3.05vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.05-3.80vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-8.11vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.79-8.53vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.55-4.35vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College3.83-10.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9College of Charleston4.250.1%1st Place
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10.85University of Wisconsin3.040.0%1st Place
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6.73Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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9.73Tufts University3.210.0%1st Place
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10.82Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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9.63Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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10.08Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
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11.12University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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11.37Georgetown University2.840.0%1st Place
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6.42Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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10.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.0%1st Place
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13.24Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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9.95Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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10.2Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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6.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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7.47Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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12.65University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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7.02Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ramming | 11.8% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Connor Trepton | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% |
| Erika Reineke | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| David Liebenberg | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% |
| David Larson | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| Brendan Cook | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% |
| Ryan Hughes | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| Michael Schalka | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% |
| Morgan Kiss | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% |
| John Silvestri | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 22.5% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% |
| Drew Shea | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 4.6% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 16.5% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.