← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.28+4.60vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.57+2.78vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+4.75vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.86+3.59vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13+5.09vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.42-0.56vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.78+0.99vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.59+0.49vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy0.52+3.22vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy-0.48+5.25vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University1.97-4.06vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.95-0.71vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University1.14-2.96vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland1.16-3.96vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy1.39-6.07vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-4.77vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-5.27vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy-0.69-2.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.6U. S. Naval Academy2.2811.9%1st Place
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4.78U. S. Naval Academy2.5714.8%1st Place
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7.75St. Mary's College of Maryland1.686.7%1st Place
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7.59Georgetown University1.867.4%1st Place
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10.09St. Mary's College of Maryland1.133.0%1st Place
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5.44Georgetown University2.4213.2%1st Place
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7.99U. S. Naval Academy1.785.6%1st Place
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8.49Georgetown University1.595.8%1st Place
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12.22U. S. Naval Academy0.522.1%1st Place
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15.25U. S. Naval Academy-0.480.7%1st Place
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6.94Georgetown University1.978.2%1st Place
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11.29Old Dominion University0.952.4%1st Place
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10.04Georgetown University1.144.1%1st Place
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10.04St. Mary's College of Maryland1.163.6%1st Place
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8.93U. S. Naval Academy1.394.2%1st Place
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11.23St. Mary's College of Maryland0.833.0%1st Place
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11.73St. Mary's College of Maryland0.672.4%1st Place
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15.6U. S. Naval Academy-0.690.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 11.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Henry Allgeier | 14.8% | 14.6% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Kelly Bates | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Raam Fox | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Enzo Menditto | 13.2% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Kelly | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Smith | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 6.0% |
| Darby Dryden | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 23.0% | 33.2% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 3.3% |
| Xavier Stoldt | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Henry Haddon | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Teddy Martin | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Lina Carper | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 4.8% |
| Josephine Sherry | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 9.6% | 19.0% | 44.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.