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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.10+5.54vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.87+9.71vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.01+3.80vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.05+6.51vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.79+2.54vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.21+3.99vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.84+4.43vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin3.04+2.60vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+0.67vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.70-1.87vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.96+0.14vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston4.25-5.89vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-2.14vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.15-4.05vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-8.04vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.55-3.24vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University2.45-3.85vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College3.83-10.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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11.71University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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6.8Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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10.51Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.54Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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9.99Tufts University3.210.0%1st Place
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11.43Georgetown University2.840.0%1st Place
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10.6University of Wisconsin3.040.0%1st Place
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9.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.0%1st Place
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8.13Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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11.14Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.11College of Charleston4.250.1%1st Place
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10.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.0%1st Place
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9.95Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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6.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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12.76University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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13.15Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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7.15Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Kiss | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Hughes | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% |
| Erika Reineke | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Drew Shea | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| David Liebenberg | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Michael Schalka | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% |
| Connor Trepton | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% |
| David Larson | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% |
| Ryan Astwood | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.4% |
| Michael Ramming | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.7% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 18.3% |
| John Silvestri | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 22.4% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.