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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+3.31vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.45+4.01vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+1.26vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+4.42vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56+2.72vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.16-0.07vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.72-2.53vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.13-1.48vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.25+1.14vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-0.58vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.71-3.93vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania0.81-5.17vs Predicted
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13Fordham University-0.99-1.60vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.52-1.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31University of Pennsylvania1.7715.8%1st Place
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6.01University of Pennsylvania1.458.3%1st Place
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4.26Cornell University1.6815.9%1st Place
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8.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.4%1st Place
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7.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.565.0%1st Place
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5.93University of Pennsylvania1.169.2%1st Place
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4.47University of Pennsylvania1.7214.3%1st Place
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6.52Fordham University1.137.8%1st Place
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10.14SUNY Maritime College-0.252.2%1st Place
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9.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.103.4%1st Place
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7.07Fordham University0.716.5%1st Place
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6.83University of Pennsylvania0.816.1%1st Place
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11.4Fordham University-0.991.2%1st Place
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12.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.520.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 15.8% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 15.9% | 16.1% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 7.0% | 2.5% |
| Brook Wood | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Torrey Chisari | 14.3% | 13.8% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 17.6% | 18.6% | 9.6% |
| Katherine Mason | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Margaux Cowles | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Samantha Hemans | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 26.2% | 25.9% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 9.4% | 20.1% | 51.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.