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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+7.44vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.25vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+1.19vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.45+2.16vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania0.81+1.80vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.72-1.46vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.13-0.31vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-0.25vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.25+1.07vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.52+2.37vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.16-5.11vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.71-4.89vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-3.76vs Predicted
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14Fordham University-0.99-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.7%1st Place
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4.25University of Pennsylvania1.7716.7%1st Place
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4.19Cornell University1.6816.1%1st Place
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6.16University of Pennsylvania1.458.5%1st Place
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6.8University of Pennsylvania0.816.9%1st Place
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4.54University of Pennsylvania1.7214.5%1st Place
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6.69Fordham University1.136.5%1st Place
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7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.564.7%1st Place
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10.07SUNY Maritime College-0.252.1%1st Place
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12.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.520.7%1st Place
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5.89University of Pennsylvania1.169.8%1st Place
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7.11Fordham University0.715.9%1st Place
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9.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.9%1st Place
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11.5Fordham University-0.991.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.6% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.7% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 16.1% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Margaux Cowles | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Torrey Chisari | 14.5% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Brook Wood | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 17.3% | 16.7% | 11.4% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 20.0% | 49.5% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 5.2% |
| Samantha Hemans | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 14.1% | 26.4% | 27.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.