Race 1B

lake-champlain-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Colin MURPHY 12.1% 12.2% 10.4% 10.7% 11.3% 11.2% 9.3% 7.6% 4.8% 5.1% 2.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Kaylee Schwitzer 4.6% 3.9% 6.4% 7.7% 6.6% 9.0% 9.4% 8.9% 9.9% 11.3% 10.2% 5.8% 4.2% 1.8% 0.3%
Avery Fanning 21.5% 19.9% 15.4% 12.4% 11.2% 7.4% 4.5% 3.7% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conor Lodge 6.0% 6.1% 8.1% 7.9% 6.4% 8.7% 10.6% 10.7% 10.9% 8.9% 8.5% 4.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0%
Colby Vavolotis 6.4% 7.1% 5.8% 6.1% 7.9% 8.4% 8.8% 9.5% 11.9% 10.1% 7.7% 5.9% 3.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Willem Sandberg 10.4% 13.4% 11.3% 12.3% 12.5% 11.4% 9.5% 6.9% 5.2% 4.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Molly Haley 2.2% 1.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.6% 2.9% 4.5% 4.1% 4.8% 7.6% 12.9% 16.9% 17.3% 13.5% 4.7%
William Bowman 18.0% 17.0% 14.6% 12.9% 11.7% 8.4% 5.8% 5.8% 2.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Genevieve Marquardt 1.3% 1.0% 1.8% 3.0% 1.7% 3.7% 4.2% 5.9% 6.7% 8.5% 11.2% 16.0% 17.8% 14.3% 2.9%
Michael Saldi 6.8% 5.5% 8.4% 8.2% 8.9% 7.9% 10.7% 11.5% 9.3% 9.1% 6.5% 4.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Charles Nunn 5.6% 6.0% 6.4% 6.8% 7.7% 8.7% 9.6% 8.2% 9.7% 9.5% 8.6% 7.3% 4.2% 1.6% 0.1%
Ellis Tonissi 3.8% 3.8% 5.3% 6.4% 7.3% 7.2% 7.9% 10.1% 11.6% 10.5% 10.8% 7.9% 5.8% 1.3% 0.3%
Terry Duncan 0.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 2.8% 2.4% 4.5% 6.0% 5.9% 9.7% 14.4% 20.3% 18.7% 6.6%
Alex Dion 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 1.9% 1.6% 3.0% 7.8% 13.6% 68.5%
Zachary Karakouzian 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 1.7% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 3.2% 4.1% 7.2% 11.5% 13.9% 32.5% 16.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.