Race 2B

lake-champlain-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
William Bowman 19.6% 16.6% 14.2% 13.7% 10.1% 9.2% 7.1% 3.9% 1.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Avery Fanning 22.3% 20.1% 16.2% 10.0% 10.3% 8.7% 5.0% 3.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ellis Tonissi 5.2% 4.8% 6.2% 6.8% 7.6% 7.2% 7.8% 8.7% 10.8% 12.4% 8.6% 8.6% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Willem Sandberg 11.0% 13.9% 12.1% 13.3% 9.5% 8.2% 9.3% 8.7% 6.7% 4.5% 1.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Michael Saldi 6.8% 7.8% 7.1% 7.7% 8.7% 8.4% 9.8% 10.2% 11.2% 7.9% 7.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0%
Kaylee Schwitzer 4.3% 5.2% 5.0% 6.0% 7.4% 8.0% 9.1% 9.6% 9.7% 12.1% 10.6% 6.6% 5.1% 1.1% 0.2%
Colin MURPHY 11.6% 10.4% 12.4% 10.8% 12.1% 10.9% 8.9% 7.3% 5.7% 4.8% 3.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Molly Haley 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 2.9% 3.4% 2.7% 4.5% 4.0% 6.3% 8.7% 9.3% 15.7% 17.4% 16.0% 4.7%
Terry Duncan 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 3.4% 4.0% 4.8% 5.9% 6.2% 11.6% 14.7% 19.5% 18.0% 4.9%
Conor Lodge 4.9% 5.9% 7.3% 7.9% 8.2% 10.0% 10.3% 10.9% 9.3% 8.9% 7.6% 4.7% 2.9% 1.1% 0.1%
Charles Nunn 4.7% 5.8% 7.3% 7.2% 8.1% 8.0% 9.4% 9.3% 9.9% 8.3% 9.2% 6.8% 3.8% 1.9% 0.3%
Colby Vavolotis 4.8% 4.3% 6.2% 9.3% 7.7% 8.8% 7.4% 10.5% 11.7% 10.0% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Alex Dion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 2.2% 3.1% 5.9% 12.2% 71.5%
Genevieve Marquardt 1.4% 1.4% 2.0% 2.4% 3.2% 3.6% 4.5% 5.2% 5.1% 7.3% 11.5% 16.3% 18.5% 14.0% 3.6%
Zachary Karakouzian 0.7% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 3.1% 4.4% 6.2% 9.1% 17.6% 33.1% 14.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.