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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+8.95vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+6.11vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.16+3.34vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+4.49vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+2.04vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+4.61vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+0.57vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.90-1.10vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.42-0.21vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-3.06vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.79-3.34vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.41+0.63vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.78vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.72-2.47vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-8.55vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.58-7.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.3%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.556.8%1st Place
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6.34University of Pennsylvania2.169.0%1st Place
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8.49Fordham University1.626.0%1st Place
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7.04Fordham University1.988.7%1st Place
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10.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.1%1st Place
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7.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.6%1st Place
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6.9University of Pennsylvania1.908.8%1st Place
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8.79Fordham University1.425.2%1st Place
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6.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.7%1st Place
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7.66Cornell University1.797.5%1st Place
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12.63SUNY Maritime College0.411.9%1st Place
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8.22SUNY Maritime College1.885.1%1st Place
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11.53SUNY Maritime College0.722.6%1st Place
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6.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.139.2%1st Place
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8.76University of Pennsylvania1.585.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Osell | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Jackson McAliley | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Javier Garcon | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Will Murray | 8.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 33.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 16.1% | 20.8% |
| JJ Klempen | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.