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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.44+4.15vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+1.55vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.71+4.19vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.78+3.10vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.84+1.96vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.91-1.98vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.94-0.46vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.58-0.33vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.52-4.06vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.51-0.29vs Predicted
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12Wesleyan University1.49-1.28vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College1.35-1.74vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.59-6.17vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire0.76-2.71vs Predicted
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16Amherst College-0.49-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.15Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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3.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.2%1st Place
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7.19Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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7.1University of Vermont2.780.1%1st Place
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6.96Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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4.02Boston College3.910.2%1st Place
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6.54Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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7.67Bowdoin College2.580.0%1st Place
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4.94Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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10.71Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.72Wesleyan University1.490.0%1st Place
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11.26Middlebury College1.350.0%1st Place
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7.83Connecticut College2.590.1%1st Place
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12.29University of New Hampshire0.760.0%1st Place
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14.08Amherst College-0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin MURPHY | 11.4% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 22.2% | 19.5% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Nunn | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Colby Vavolotis | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Conor Lodge | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| William Bowman | 15.9% | 17.6% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Saldi | 8.1% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kaylee Schwitzer | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Willem Sandberg | 11.0% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 13.7% | 4.4% |
| Molly Haley | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 17.4% | 14.0% | 6.5% |
| Terry Duncan | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 22.1% | 19.4% | 5.2% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Zachary Karakouzian | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 31.1% | 14.9% |
| Alex Dion | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 14.2% | 68.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.