Race 6B

lake-champlain-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Avery Fanning 21.9% 21.4% 14.1% 12.0% 10.1% 7.7% 5.1% 2.8% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Charles Nunn 4.9% 6.0% 7.2% 8.0% 7.9% 9.5% 8.3% 9.3% 9.8% 9.5% 8.7% 6.7% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0%
Conor Lodge 6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.8% 9.1% 9.6% 9.3% 11.4% 9.6% 8.8% 6.9% 4.8% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Colin MURPHY 11.4% 12.4% 11.6% 10.1% 11.6% 9.1% 9.5% 8.7% 6.6% 4.4% 2.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Kaylee Schwitzer 4.6% 5.9% 5.9% 4.4% 7.7% 7.4% 7.9% 9.4% 10.3% 11.1% 10.7% 7.7% 4.4% 2.1% 0.5%
Willem Sandberg 11.5% 11.0% 12.1% 13.8% 10.9% 10.7% 10.0% 6.9% 6.4% 3.3% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William Bowman 16.8% 16.8% 16.6% 12.9% 10.1% 9.3% 5.8% 5.5% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Saldi 6.7% 6.5% 8.2% 9.7% 7.3% 9.0% 10.3% 11.3% 9.5% 8.5% 6.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
Colby Vavolotis 5.6% 5.1% 6.3% 8.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.8% 8.7% 9.6% 10.9% 8.0% 6.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Ellis Tonissi 4.8% 3.4% 5.4% 6.5% 7.7% 7.5% 8.9% 9.6% 11.0% 10.9% 10.6% 6.7% 4.6% 2.2% 0.2%
Genevieve Marquardt 1.5% 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.4% 3.8% 4.1% 4.7% 7.4% 8.2% 9.6% 15.7% 17.4% 14.0% 5.7%
Molly Haley 1.5% 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 2.1% 3.3% 4.2% 5.0% 6.1% 7.8% 11.9% 13.7% 20.4% 16.8% 3.3%
Terry Duncan 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 2.8% 2.3% 1.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.4% 6.9% 10.6% 15.3% 19.6% 17.9% 6.9%
Zachary Karakouzian 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 1.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2% 5.4% 8.0% 11.3% 17.6% 29.6% 15.3%
Alex Dion 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 1.0% 1.7% 2.4% 3.8% 6.4% 13.7% 67.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.