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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+3.21vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+2.17vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.45+3.08vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.71+3.03vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania0.81+1.96vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.16-0.26vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56+0.77vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.25+2.03vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.13-2.28vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-0.61vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.72-6.47vs Predicted
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12Fordham University-0.99-0.60vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.51vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.52-1.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.21University of Pennsylvania1.7716.6%1st Place
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4.17Cornell University1.6817.5%1st Place
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6.08University of Pennsylvania1.459.2%1st Place
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7.03Fordham University0.715.9%1st Place
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6.96University of Pennsylvania0.816.2%1st Place
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5.74University of Pennsylvania1.169.2%1st Place
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7.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.564.2%1st Place
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10.03SUNY Maritime College-0.252.1%1st Place
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6.72Fordham University1.136.6%1st Place
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9.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.1%1st Place
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4.53University of Pennsylvania1.7215.3%1st Place
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11.4Fordham University-0.991.2%1st Place
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8.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.3%1st Place
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12.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.520.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 16.6% | 16.9% | 14.9% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 17.5% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Margaux Cowles | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Brook Wood | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 17.7% | 18.7% | 8.8% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 4.8% |
| Torrey Chisari | 15.3% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Hemans | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 27.1% | 25.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 53.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.