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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.71+6.13vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.44+3.07vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.91+0.95vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-0.36vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.52+0.09vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.58+0.73vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.59-0.42vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.78-1.94vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College1.35+1.05vs Predicted
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11Wesleyan University1.49-0.22vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.51-1.34vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire0.76-0.49vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.84-6.88vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.94-8.45vs Predicted
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16Amherst College-0.49-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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5.07Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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3.95Boston College3.910.2%1st Place
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3.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.2%1st Place
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5.09Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.73Bowdoin College2.580.0%1st Place
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7.58Connecticut College2.590.1%1st Place
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7.06University of Vermont2.780.1%1st Place
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11.05Middlebury College1.350.0%1st Place
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10.78Wesleyan University1.490.0%1st Place
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10.66Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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12.51University of New Hampshire0.760.0%1st Place
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7.12Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.55Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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14.09Amherst College-0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Nunn | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Colin MURPHY | 10.8% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 17.3% | 17.9% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 21.1% | 18.8% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kaylee Schwitzer | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Colby Vavolotis | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Terry Duncan | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 20.4% | 15.7% | 5.4% |
| Molly Haley | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 16.0% | 19.8% | 14.1% | 4.3% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 17.6% | 13.1% | 6.1% |
| Zachary Karakouzian | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 17.0% | 34.7% | 15.5% |
| Conor Lodge | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Michael Saldi | 7.0% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Dion | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 15.7% | 68.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.