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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+7.04vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.62+6.70vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.16+3.46vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+5.63vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.79+2.70vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.98+0.93vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.90-0.12vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+0.33vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.42-0.17vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.58-1.33vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-4.15vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.30vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-6.44vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.72-2.41vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-4.36vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.41-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.04SUNY Maritime College1.885.9%1st Place
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8.7Fordham University1.625.7%1st Place
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6.46University of Pennsylvania2.1610.1%1st Place
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9.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.3%1st Place
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7.7Cornell University1.796.7%1st Place
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6.93Fordham University1.988.8%1st Place
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6.88University of Pennsylvania1.908.9%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.555.6%1st Place
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8.83Fordham University1.424.8%1st Place
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8.67University of Pennsylvania1.585.2%1st Place
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6.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.9%1st Place
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7.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.6%1st Place
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6.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.139.7%1st Place
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11.59SUNY Maritime College0.722.5%1st Place
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10.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.5%1st Place
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12.51SUNY Maritime College0.411.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.5% |
| Jackson McAliley | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Lars Osell | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Javier Garcon | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| Cole Woodworth | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 3.6% |
| Will Murray | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| JJ Klempen | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 15.0% | 20.3% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 14.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 33.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.