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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.45+4.97vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.41vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+1.25vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.24vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.29vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.13+0.74vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.16-1.24vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania0.81-1.10vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.71-1.88vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.25+0.14vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-3.16vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-2.54vs Predicted
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13Fordham University-0.99-1.60vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.52-1.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.97University of Pennsylvania1.458.6%1st Place
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4.41University of Pennsylvania1.7216.0%1st Place
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4.25Cornell University1.6817.1%1st Place
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4.24University of Pennsylvania1.7717.2%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.8%1st Place
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6.74Fordham University1.136.2%1st Place
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5.76University of Pennsylvania1.168.8%1st Place
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6.9University of Pennsylvania0.816.7%1st Place
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7.12Fordham University0.716.4%1st Place
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10.14SUNY Maritime College-0.252.0%1st Place
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7.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.564.0%1st Place
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9.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.8%1st Place
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11.4Fordham University-0.991.0%1st Place
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12.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.520.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Madeleine Rice | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
Torrey Chisari | 16.0% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
J.J. Smith | 17.1% | 14.7% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Sofia Segalla | 17.2% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Annika VanderHorst | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 2.5% |
Elizabeth Cutler | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
Adra Ivancich | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
Margaux Cowles | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
Lizzie Cochran | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
Rebecca Runyan | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 17.8% | 18.9% | 10.1% |
Brook Wood | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 5.9% |
Samantha Hemans | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 25.6% | 25.5% |
Bennett O'Keefe | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 17.9% | 53.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.